The next five years will see us face another crunch – the oil crunch. This time, we do have the chance to prepare. The challenge is to use that time well. As we reach maximum oil extraction rates, the era of cheap oil is behind us. We must plan for a world in which oil prices are likely to be both higher and more volatile and where oil price shocks have the potential to destabilise economic, political and social activity.
Quote from the Itpoes report Feb 2010 (Industry Task force on Peak Oil and Energy Security) Read the whole report
Oil supply past and projected
I have already posted quite a lot of stuff on Peak oil but this is a very good contemporary report that brings it all into sharp focus. Supported by folk such as Branson, on the sharp end of the business world and looking ahead, Jeremy Leggett, oil geologist turncoat – who defected to the solar industry and the CEO of Scottish and Southern Energy.
Basically it is saying when the global economy starts to pick up again (if ) then there won’t be the spare capacity in the oil infrastructure to satisfy demand. Or not for long, it examines three different scenarios, none good if you are a ‘business as usual’ kind thinking person. In fact as prices for energy have been relatively low until last year, then there has been massive under-investment in new drilling, wells and other infrastructure, as well as training the next generation of oil engineers. So the time lag on developing the new fields that have been found is going to be a significant factor too.
It also reminds us that 5% of global production come from one field, Ghawar in Saudi, and it is over 50 years old now and they are having to pumping 100,000 tonnes of sea water underneath it to keep the pressure up, it could fail at any moment. For all the high technology, satelite imaging and computer processing power we now have at our disposal the world has not found a new super giant field anything like this since 1961. Rather even than worrying where the peak is, perhaps the more pertinant question to ask is ‘how much longer can we hope to sustain current levels of 86m b/d production?’. It is all starting to look a bit precarious.
We need to be scaling down our fossil fuel demands now, just on the scarcity issue, let alone the climate change issue.
One the climate change subject, if we aren’t all bored of having to repeatedly have those conversations over again on the subject -do check the Skeptical Science website.. sceptical of climate sceptics that is.. very well laid out arguments and data on the old Climate change chestnut. I increasingly think that actually there is no point to trying to imagine we can find a cure the problem, everyone agrees to treaty on climate change any. its absurd. it matters not really, more is just going all out to invest in renewables and stop kidding ourselves. Peak Oil. Climate change.. whatever.. we just have to concentrate on fostering self reliance, re-localisation, stronger communities etc..low input, productive farming systems.. the rest will sort its self out then . eventually everyone will be forced to realise that low energy sustainable systems are not a political choice, or some kind of opinion, it is a simple imperative, based on physics and biology.
