Archive for category peak oil

Energy descent – a new challenge for permaculture

My first interest in permaculture came from managing a well designed, 8-acre permaculture small holding in Chimanimani, Zimbabwe. It had been designed and developed by Graham Metlercamp and was simply the most productive and diverse piece of land I have ever seen. It was a no brainer, as they say, I was instantly converted, without ever hearing the word permaculture, or knowing about the principles of ecological design, Bill Mollison or anything, all of that came later. The beauty, productivity and obvious room for nature, a garden plot in surplus with veg, grains, pasture for cattle, milk and cheese, fruit, fish, honey, wine and all with minimal external inputs. It seemed obvious to me that this was the way forward for agriculture: the foundation stone for building sustainable economies is a secure local food supply.

Ok so I was in Africa, and maybe looking at things through a slightly different perspective, an insecure food supply is more commonplace over there and labour much more plentiful. Small scale production without machines and without economies of scale might make sense in rural Africa but not in the over developed West. We fly in our kumquats in from Israel and Brazil, our grain from America our beef from Australia – the global supermarket is ours for the choosing, whilst poor underdeveloped nations have to produce their own food locally and seasonally, the whole world is our supermarket.

us oil peak

US Oil production peak

My first encounters with permaculture were also back in the day when Climate Change was not on the radar as a pressing concern and fears over the energy supply were consigned to the 1970′s; A time when US oil production had just peaked as predicted, in 1971 and was followed by that period when the Arabs got difficult and we experienced a dip in our energy supply for the first time and prices rocketed. Concerns about energy in the late 70′s we so strong even then US President  Jimmy Carter put solar panels on the roof of the White House, and the family friend who used to run us to school in Wolverhampton every morning in his flash Jaguar went out and bought a Cintroen 2CV energy efficient car. Extreme times and a distant memory.

It was shortly after that moment that North Sea Oil first came on supply, as did Alaskan oil, there was growth in the big Mexican oil fields and Canada got going on production as well. The world fell asleep, in came Ronald Reagan to the White House who promptly removed the solar panaels, calling them ‘un-American’ and Britiain went on a consumer spending spree and road building programme funded by North Sea oil and gas. From that day we started travelling in the wrong direction, at an accelerating pace and we forgot all our concerms over energy and sustainability.

energy supply model

Fossil fuel energy supply model

Right now, all our economic models for consumer led capitalism rely on an expanding energy frontier. All the evidence suggests that we are now entering a new phase in the world’s history, one of a diminishing energy supply,  we have passed the peak. I have written a lot about Peak Oil already, anyone needing more evidence needs to go to the Oil Drum or check out some of the resources at Die Off or a visit to the Post Carbon Institute in California.  There is an Association for the Study of Peak Oil and numerous other resources out there if you still need convincing.

A quick note here… a friend told me off yesterday, in the context of my making a negative remark about her stopping by a McDonalds food outlet.  ‘Your lot are so judgemental/ critical/ smug etc..’ it left me wondering what ‘your lot’ meant. When it comes to the study of Peak Oil it is the senior oil geologists who are sounding the alarm bells. Some of the least radical people around, people who have spent their lives studying geological formations rather than engaging with the global media. What they are all quick to point out is that oil discoveries worldwide peaked in 1961. With the advent of computer modelling, satellite imaging, all the 21st century technology and the amount of oil they are finding is only going down, not only that but the finds are smaller and smaller and further and further afield, under the sea, the ice at the poles and a long long way from market. This means that the net energy yield is also declining, in other words we are using more energy to find less… that is why the curve in the graph falls so sharply. It is this energy descent that we have to prepare for, and the first part of our economy to suffer from the shortage of energy will be farming. Food producion has become a global business, consuming vast amounts of energy to bring produce to market – infact the stat is 10 calories of oil is consumed for each calory of food produced. (Read eating oil)

This new reality is the biggest challenge humanity has yet had to face… many commentators are saying this, maybe climate change or nucelar proliferation may be as bad, but who is keeping score? the point is our food supply has never been more precarious, and this is why I am concentrating on relocalising food production as  a key focus for my work this decade. A key focus for Permaculture design work currently has to be centred around relocalising food production.

I apologise to my friend for critiscising her visit to the Golden Arches, we are all caught up in the globalized food supply chain, every time we enter a supermarket or a fast food outlet we are feeding the global oil addiction, its going to be a hard habit to break.

The community garden at Cwm Harry in Newtown is a small part of that work towards relocalising food supply as well as devising and running Permaculture Design Courses, which i do with my project partners Ian and Leslie et al at Sector39. I also have a long involvement in housing co-operatives and fairtrade and development education.

New Project at Pen Y Garnedd.

Its only at proposal stage but I see our next key step is to establish what I am calling the Pen Y Garnedd Permaculture Research Institute, where we are aiming to take on a 24 acre plot where we can scale up some of our ideas and develop a working model for permaculture food production for our area, here in Wales. It is a couple of miles from  the village where myself and key colleagues live and we intend it to become a hub for food production and permaculture teaching in our own local food economy.

I will be writing a lot more about this project soon and am keen to hear from anyone who is interested in finding out more or even investing in the loanstock issue. We need to create an many working examples that we can, working with the permaculture principles to build the case studies and examples to tackle the key issue of regional food security.

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Farm for the Future?

If you have not seen the Farm for a Future documentary then I strongly suggest you take the time to see it. It is a great introduction to Permaculture thinking and maps out the dilemma that all farms are having to face up to. As the cost of oil and diesel rises the ever smaller profit margins in agriculture are eroded away, exposing the absolute reliance our food production systems have on cheap energy.

So what is the way forward? Many farms are being pushed into ever more capital intensive systems, bigger fields, more inputs, bigger machines and fewer workers, less room for nature and wildlife and much more debt. The movie, FOOD INC, which came out last year paints a pretty terrifying picture of corporate large scale agriculture – its impacts on landscapes, soil, animals and the farmers themselves. It is not surprising that so few people want to be involved in agriculture – and a surprising stat that comes out of farm for a future is that the average age of a British farmer is 60!. So the average farmer is 4 years from retirement age, a great many carry on into their 70′s not least becasue the next generation is not keen to take on the mantel.

So what is the future for farming? Large scale industrial agriculture is not very interested in marginal hilly small farms like the one we will be studying on. You can’t fit a 80 foot wide combine in one of their fields anyway. I cant but help think that the smaller marginal farms are the edge from which a new 21st century type of agriculture will emerge from, and one that will give us all new ideas and new approaches to managing the landscape and the natural environment. If we cant have big machines in the post peak oil world, then the only choice is going to be to reintegrate people back into the system. Without having to use big machines having smaller plots with much greater diversity of production is going to make more sense. Chris Dixon, the permaculture pioneer in Dolgellau, also featured on Farm for the Future, thinks that really the garden is the most productive farm of land use, small scale, diverse and allowing a great attention to detail. Having spent 20+ years on his 7 acre small holding he is now convinced even that is too big to properly manage responsibly.

Of course there are no simple answers, and I suspect that farms in the future, the near future, will start performing and being valued for performing a much wider set of functions. Wildlife habitat protection, re-instating wetlands and improving upland water storage, carbon sequestration via no plough systems, bio char, coppice and timber production will also become key functions for farming as well as food production.

Our market driven econmy is very ready to make use of ‘free’ assets like soil air and water, and I suspect that the only way to get these fundamentals valued is to put a price on them, in some way or other. Take bees and other insects for example, treated at best as a minor annoyance, and more widely as pests and are killed in great numbers by toxins and habitat destruction yet they perform vital functions like pollination, disease control and ecosystem regulation. They dont charge and we dont value them, in fact we wage a chemical war on them, then wonder why bird numbers have plummeted over the last few decades.

It is going to be a fascinating couple of weeks and I will certainly be writing lots more about it. There are still places on the 2 week course available so I hope anyone reading this will pass on the word about to any potentially interested parties.

There is a more detailed leaflet about the course available here (Hi res 4mb, Low res 1mb), as well as a web page on my main site

permaculture design course

Permaculture Design Course advert

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Autumn PDC

The flier for the next Permaculture Design course is available for download here and we are already taking the first few bookings for it. I am especially excited about this up coming 2 week course as we are going to be at a new venue and working with some very interesting people. The plan is to be based at a local farm, which is very much in transtion and really an ideal place to be considering issues such as food security and the complexites of the challenges we are facing as a society trying to work towards sustainability.

Other new things we would like to try out include charcoal burning, as a way of exploring energy and value added produce, thanks to John Owen who will be leading that session. We will be visiting the garden project at Cwm Harry as well as old favourites like a trip to CAT and Sweet Loving Flowers, who have transformed an acre or so of sheep pasture into one of the most diverse and productive pieces of land I have seen. Lots more info about the course will be posted here over the next few weeks.

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Where next? Permaculture roadshow

Churnet Valley, North Staffs moorlands

Back home after a weekend away teaching an introduction to permaculture course in North Staffs.  It can be pretty exhausting travelling around, sleeping in a tent or on a couch, and I feel it a bit this morning. However, it was another uplifiting and inspiring weekend for me too, met some lovely people and took some time to think deeply about the subject of permaculture, sustainability and energy descent.

My friend Ian Watt was along to help, having cycling a lot of the way down from Scotland. Ian is on his own Eco adventure, and has finally shed the car to move to the next stage of his low impact existence. Follow his adventures on Ian’s Eco blog.com.

It was frustrating not have had more takers on the course, but it was still very much worthwhile, not least for the feeling of having sown some seeds which hopefully will lead on to more connections being made, more projects starting.

A growing feeling of restlessness is taking hold, I have been based at the Llanfyllin Workhouse for the last 2 years and am very involved with a new housing co-operative group, Permanent Housing and we are seeking a more permanent and permaculture focussed hub to live at and work from. The Workhouse has been a great staging point, but it is finally time to be moving on to pastures new and I have handed in my notice there and will be moving out at the end of the month.

It is fantastically exciting to be contemplating the next move and what could be a huges tep forward for all of us in the group, but also unsettling to be considering up rooting and finding a new base to work from. Putting my life in storage while we wait for the next opportunities to present themselves.

The fact that increasingly we are getting requests to run courses at other people’s venues has contributed to the decision to move. I cant really justify the expense of keeping on a large studio at the Workhouse, to basically store a few books, tools and plants, so the idea is to get a caravan and go mobile- so I can turn up at a course with my little caravan in tow and everything I need in it, ready to rock.

Our next course is in Stoke again, at Farm2Grow and it is yurt making and an introduction to green wood working with the fantastic team from Pikea.org. There are places still available, to make a full Yurt wheel, or to come along and help and learn some skills at a reduced rate. Please get in tocuh if you are interested .. it is Friday, Sat, Sun on the first weekend of August on a small holding in the stunning Churnet valley, North Staffordshire Moorlands.

Peak Oil, keeps hitting the headlines and there was a Radio 4 spot on it on Sunday. Trivialised by a jokey format and undermined by a random interviewee claiming that there is plenty of oil left and eveyone should go back to sleep. The show is about getting an investigative journalist  to look at a contemporary issue, and report back th efollowing week, so before I criticise the show I should wait and see what they come up with in the report.

I found this snippett on David Stahan’s site> “…And the fact that BP was drilling for Macondo, a tiny field containing less than 12 hours’ global consumption, under a mile of water tells us all we need to know about the state of oil depletion.”

For more Peak Oil related fun check out the interactive Oil Depletion map

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The future of flight?

Airships are the future


Click image for link to a posting on air ship design

From Guardian article


Click lower image for link to recent Guardian article

The thing about petrol is energy density. it is an incredibly compact way of storing energy, very handy for things like airplanes, which consume a lot of energy and are very weight sensitive. If you try and run a jet plane on bio diesel then the whole payload of the plane ends being the fuel, as i understand it. So it make the whole exercise pretty pointless. Aside form the environmental damge they do, and the fact that global oil supply is peaking and climate change, planes needs loads of infrastructure, like airports and runways. airships dont need any of that… and as most of lift comes from the helium all they need is a little engine to push them forward, you can run them on chip fat, with lots of possibilities for solar powered, in part anyway. It changes everything.

The Graf Zeppelin in its hayday in the 1930′s flew from Paris to New York in 20 hours.. a much more sedate speed than concord and still workable, without the noise, expense and pollution. Think about this though, no more road freight, no more trucks, or even big ships potentially. The future is airships, get on board.

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Requiem for Detroit, welcome to the future

Requiem for Detroit – welcome to the future
(not sure why I am getting auto draft as a title above.. sorry ’bout that)

With its big chrome cars, 24 hour production lines and fantastic wealth, Detroit was the very embodiment of the American dream. Consumerism began here.. and it died here. Population has collapsed from over 2 million to less than 800,000.

“Amongst the ruins of the city, what was the Paris of the midwest – the frontier city of american dream,  lies the first post-American city. Its a darkly cautionary tale for the whole industrialised world.  Its a first pioneer’s map of the post industrial future which awaits us all”

“Over the last few years 50,000 houses have been pulled down and turned into vacant lots (in Detroit)”

“the fastest growing movement in the United States today is the urban agriculture movement”

“Food is the way you begin to care for yourself and (and growing food makes you) begin to think about yourself in a very different way”

This excellent documentary is the tale of our times really. The century of the motor car, also the intransigence of big business, the inability to see ahead and to embrace change, its a tale of greed, oppression, racism, divided communities. It is about how money looks after itself and people are expendible. AND It is contains real hope, a real positive message, that you can rebuild from the bottom up, that nature will reclaim the ruins of our so called civilization and that we will be able to move on and find new, different and more creative and sustainable ways of living.

Here’s some links: BBC News story on Urbam farming in Detroit

Urban farming network, USA

Earthworks Urban farm Detroit

Greens and Greenbacks. Metro times article on Urban farms

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Drill Baby Drill (not)

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BP to pay $3 billion dividend to share holders this quarter

“It’s not going to look good paying about $3bn in [quarterly] dividends to shareholders if at the same time local fishermen are having their livelihoods destroyed in the Gulf.”

However, BP’s dividend is of crucial importance to the City and to the pensions of millions who depend on payouts from profitable companies to boost their retirement funds. Together with rival Shell, BP accounted for 25% of the total dividends of £50bn paid in the UK market last year. Any cut in the dividend could result in investors selling BP shares, further weakening the company, which has lost nearly 30% of its value since the disaster began. [guardian]

Read those figures and weep! 25% of all dividends paid on the UK share market came from 2 oil companies. It really says it all.. just how addicted are we ? and just how vulnerable are we to shocks in the oil market. Hey our present supply, transport and survival lines depend on it and our capital makrets and pensions – or those of you who have pensions are tied up in oil futures. Aint that a paradox! Oil is not the future people.. get with the programme!!

Not only are BP pumping millions of barrels into the gulf of Mexico, they are pumping billions of pounds into our economy ..  What price the envionment? We are actually investing in our own destruction.. whilst leading ourselves ever further up a blind alley of dependence on fossil fuels.

No prizes for guessing what my opinion is on the subject then?

We have to wean ourselves off all fossil fuels as fast as possible.. it will be to everyone’s advantage to do this as quickly as we can and to prioritise that over pretty much all other things. No need to go crazy, just start using less energy every day and start building strategies to work together with your local community to solve more complex challenges, like transport and energy… Its called the great transistion.. get on board folks!

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The view from the peak?

air spill

BREAKING: Large Air Spill from Wind farm - No Threats Reported. Some Claim To Enjoy The Breeze

Large Air Spill from Wind farm – No Threats Reported. Some Claim To Enjoy The Breeze
This From the Huffington Post seemed very apt with the world’s largest oil spill going on right now. A major ecological disaster, a tragedy of huge proportions but also a stark reminder of the escalating costs and complexities of exploiting the remaining oil reserve.

I spent a bit of time trawling around the Oil Drum – one the best sources for information on the energy situation, Peak oil etc . Well worth looking at if you have not..

Here is a snippet..

John Hofmeister, recently retired president of Shell Oil Company, gave a luncheon speech at the Offshore Technology Conference on our energy predicament, and the challenges the oil and gas industry faces, viewed from inside the industry. I am not certain we will agree with everything he says, but thought we might think about the issues raised. I quote from an article that begins on page 3 of OTC2010.

More recently, despite the high oil price “wake up” call delivered to the US during the period 2005-2008, policymakers have been unable or unwilling to address the nation’s energy security, economic competitiveness that comes from affordable energy, and the potential jobs creation initiatives that a sound energy policy would and should deliver.

Given the current trajectory of an aging infrastructure, decades of restrictions on drilling, failure to tackle the obstacles that prevent both more nuclear plant and clean coal plant projects, frittering at the edges of renewable energy, and avoidance of other energy “hard choices,” within the decade the nation faces an unprecedented energy abyss.

By 2020, there will be inadequate supplies of liquid fuels and electricity taking the nation toward inevitable gas lines, brown-outs, black-outs and extraordinary high prices. The energy abyss will stick around for up to a full decade with all of the national insecurity, economic decline, joblessness and social malaise that accompanies energy shortages in third world countries.

John Hofmeister, recently retired president of Shell Oil

The other and perhaps most startling thing.. and I keep an eye on these things – is the graph for month by month global oil production. Is July 08 the Peak month? at 74.74 million barrels per day.. is it possible that production has slipped under 72 mbd for the last time? if that were the case it would certainly mean we have entered a new era. The first time ever that the amount of energy available to us was decreasing.

Oil Peak

Oil Peak?

Of course there could be a few more twists and turns in this story yet... “the whole point about the production peak is that dont know you have passed it until you see it a way back in the rear view mirror” to paraphrase energy investor Matthew Simmons.

BUT We could be looking at that moment right now.. with global markets wavering, a giant oil slick on its way to US coast… well lets not get carried away, but this could be the point that marks the end of the era of cheap fossil energy. A change that will affect every aspect of our lives, or what had become our everyday lives.. our resource intensive, energy hungry, buy now -  pay later, mortgage the environment  lifestyles.  hmmmm.  Watch this figures closely… energy is none negotiable, it is not an ideological issue, it is the laws of phisics… something that shapes our reality and possibilities in a very tangible and real way. Energy supply is the issue that has the potential to be the bottom line issue.. the one that has tthe power to force our hand, to en masse accept that business as usual is no longer an option, and the time to put all our energis into the sustainability transition is upon us.

Here is that same data, from a different source.

Oil Watch, April 2010

Oil Watch, April 2010

Need some more? The future of farming, from the Post Carbon Institute. Audio of talks by Philosopher-farmers Wendell Berry, Wes Jackson and Gene Logsdon discuss the future of agriculture, the environment and changing our ideas about growth and progress. Recorded live at Xavier University on April 11.

‘We’ve screwed up a whole continent, A 22 year old alive today,  has lived through 54% of all the oil ever being burned’

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Power of Community, an introduction to transition towns

power of community

Power of Community

Friday May 21 in The Gallery Llanfyllin Workhouse, Free entry. suggested donation £2.00

Peak oil came early to Cuba, economically isolated the island state lost almost all of its oil imports when the Soviet era suddenly ended. This is the story of how they adapted to life after oil. This is a positive, informative, challenging and uplifting story. Truly thought provoking.

Followed by a presentation on Transiton Towns, an idea of how to  build a relocalisation strategy and how we might plot a pathway to energy independence.

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